Predicting the 87th Academy Awards

86th Oscars®, Governors Ball Preview

(UPDATE: 02/22/15, 9:26 p.m.: I went 19/24 this year, which is about my average when it comes to predicting the Oscars over the years. The categories I got wrong were Director, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. Of these, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing were really tricky categories to predict. Here’s to better luck next year!)

The time has come to take my annual psychic test, and I find myself both excited and unsure. The Oscars ceremony is set to televise in less than 24 hours, and I’ll be second-guessing my predictions down to the wire. This is the most competitive Oscar race in recent memory (even with this year’s snubs in mind – I cry for thee, A Most Violent Year), and for those who have been following this race for years, we’re in for a treat. There’s only a handful of guaranteed wins, and it’s so close for a good number of categories that only one in as many as three films can win that coveted statuette. This is going to be a nail-biter, and I find it humorous and somewhat sad how I’m using that word to describe an awards event that really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

Last year, I correctly predicted (or “luckily guessed”) 22 of the 24 winners. If I get anywhere close to that number for this year, color me a very dumbstruck man.

For each category, my predictions are in bold.

I’ve placed asterisks (*) next to the categories – 13/24 – of which I’ve seen all the nominated films, and in those, I’ve listed the nominees in order of preferences (AKA which ones I think should win, from most deserving to least). Even though there are certain nominees in other categories I’d like to see win, I don’t think it’s right for me to push for one without having seen them all, even if I’ve seen all but one – for fairness’ sake. That said, the nominees for the asterisk-less categories are listed in alphabetical order (by last name or song title where applicable).

Best Picture *

  • Boyhood
  • Selma
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Whiplash
  • The Imitation Game
  • American Sniper
  • The Theory of Everything

Best Director *

  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood
  • Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Actor *

  • Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Actress

  • Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Actor

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Laura Dern, Wild
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Best Animated Feature Film

  • Big Hero 6
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Ida – Poland
  • Leviathan – Russia
  • Tangerines – Estonia
  • Timbuktu – Mauritania
  • Wild Tales – Argentina

Best Documentary – Feature

  • Citizenfour
  • Finding Vivian Maier
  • Last Days in Vietnam
  • The Salt of the Earth
  • Virunga

Best Adapted Screenplay *

  • Whiplash
  • Inherent Vice
  • The Theory of Everything
  • The Imitation Game
  • American Sniper

Best Original Screenplay *

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Nightcrawler
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Foxcatcher
  • Boyhood

Best Film Editing *

  • Boyhood
  • Whiplash
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game
  • American Sniper

Best Cinematography *

  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Mr. Turner
  • Unbroken
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ida

Best Production Design *

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Mr. Turner
  • Interstellar
  • The Imitation Game
  • Into the Woods

Best Costume Design

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Inherent Vice
  • Into the Woods
  • Maleficent
  • Mr. Turner

Best Makeup and Hairstyling *

  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Foxcatcher

Best Visual Effects *

  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  • Interstellar
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier
  • X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Original Score *

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Interstellar
  • The Theory of Everything
  • The Imitation Game
  • Mr. Turner

Best Original Song

  • “Everything is Awesome” – The LEGO Movie
  • “Glory” – Selma
  • “Grateful” – Beyond the Lights
  • “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me
  • “Lost Stars” – Begin Again

Best Sound Editing *

  • American Sniper
  • Interstellar
  • Unbroken
  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Best Sound Mixing *

  • Whiplash
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Unbroken
  • American Sniper
  • Interstellar

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Aya
  • Boogaloo and Graham
  • Butter Lamp
  • Parvaneh
  • The Phone Call

Best Animated Short Film

  • The Bigger Picture
  • The Dam Keeper
  • Feast
  • Me and My Moulton
  • A Single Life

Best Documentary – Short Subject

  • Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
  • Joanna
  • Our Curse
  • The Reaper
  • White Earth