(UPDATE: 02/28/16, 9:30 p.m.: As I suspected, this year saw my worst prediction record for the Oscars, as I went 17/24 this year. The categories I got wrong were Picture, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Costume Design, Original Song, Visual Effects, and Documentary – Short Subject. I can only hope for a better record next year!)

I swear, doing this every year makes me more anxious than it really should.

At this time each year, I head into the Oscars ceremony with some degree of confidence in my predictions, as well as the hope that I finally correctly guess the outcomes of all 24 categories. Not this year; not only is this a really competitive year, it’s the most unpredictable, and I have a sinking feeling that this will be my worst year yet, as I’m torn about what to predict in as many as six categories (all of which, not coincidentally, feature a showdown between Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, the two heavyweights), and that’s not counting the short film categories that I seldom guess right. But you know what? I’ve decided to not worry about it all that much. After all, an unpredictable year makes for a fun ceremony, no? It’s not every year that I see something like this.

For each category, my predictions are in red.

I’ve placed asterisks (*) next to the categories (18/24 – my most ever!) where I’ve seen all the nominated films, and for those, I’ve listed the nominees in order of preferences (which ones I think should win, from most deserving to least). Although there are certain nominees in other categories I’d like to see win, it doesn’t sit well with me to push for one without having seen them all. With that being said, the nominees for the asterisk-less categories are listed in alphabetical order (by last name or song title where applicable).

In addition, I decided to have some fun with my write-up this year. For each of the categories with asterisks, I wrote a small section (in blue) in which I discuss the snubbed films and which of the actual nominees they should replace. That way, you get an idea of how I think the Oscars should go down. At the end, you’ll get a comprehensive list of my vision for the results. As discussed earlier, I’ve put “n/a” for the categories where I haven’t seen all the nominees – for fairness’ sake. I’ve also put “n/a” for Best Live Action Short Film and Best Documentary – Short Subject since I’ve seen only the nominated short films, if any at all.

Best Picture *

• Spotlight
• Room
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Brooklyn
• Bridge of Spies
• The Big Short
• The Martian
• The Revenant

Well, dear faithful reader, you already know which of these nominees I would take out and what I would replace them with: just take the first eight films from my top ten list of 2015. With that being said, I’d choose the absolutely devastating 45 Years for Best Picture (obviously).

Best Director *

• George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
• Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
• Adam McKay, The Big Short
• Lenny Abrahamson, Room
• Alejandro González Iñnarítu, The Revenant

Todd Haynes was criminally snubbed for his delicate, masterful work on Carol. If it were up to me, I’d take out Iñnarítu and put Haynes in his place. With this new lineup, Haynes just barely edges Miller as my pick for this category.

Best Actor *

• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
• Matt Damon, The Martian
• Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

I imagine that I’ll take some flak here, but I would take out Damon, DiCaprio, and Cranston. In their place, I’d put the haunting Abraham Attah for Beasts of No Nation, the multifaceted Jacob Tremblay for Room, and the intimidating Johnny Depp for Black Mass. Out of these revamped nominees, I’d opt for Tremblay.

Best Actress *

• Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
• Brie Larson, Room
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

If you ask me, 2015 is one of the best years in recent memory when it comes to lead performances by actresses. All five of these nominees are absolutely riveting, but I think that Alicia Vikander’s moving turn in The Danish Girl needs to be recognized here (yes, I’m aware that she’s nominated in Best Supporting Actress, which I’ll address shortly), so I’d replace Lawrence with her. From the new list, though, Rampling still reigns supreme.

Best Supporting Actor *

• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Sylvester Stallone, Creed
• Tom Hardy, The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
• Christian Bale, The Big Short

All five of these actors gave impressive performances, but I’d argue that there are others who are more deserving of this recognition. I’d knock off Bale, Hardy, and Ruffalo before placing the unsettling Benicio del Toro for Sicario, the charismatic Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, and the hilarious Walton Goggins for The Hateful Eight. Even with the addition of these incredible performances, Rylance is still my pick.

Best Supporting Actress *

• Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
• Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Rooney Mara, Carol

Now, let’s address a little something called category fraud, and how it affects Mara and Vikander. Frankly put, their roles do not belong in this category because they are co-lead and lead performances respectively, hence why I have them at the bottom of my preferences, though they’re certainly the most affecting of the bunch. I’d take those two out, along with McAdams, and in their place I’d put the strong-willed Joan Allen for Room, the confident Tessa Thompson for Creed, and…Vikander for her eerily graceful elegant turn in Ex Machina. From this new batch, I choose Vikander.

Best Animated Feature Film

• Anomalisa
• Boy & the World
• Inside Out
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• When Marnie Was There

Best Foreign Language Film

• Embrace of the Serpent – Colombia
• Mustang – France
• Son of Saul – Hungary
• Theeb – Jordan
• A War – Denmark

Best Documentary – Feature

• Amy
• Cartel Land
• The Look of Silence
• What Happened, Miss Simone?
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Adapted Screenplay *

• The Big Short
• Room
• Brooklyn
• The Martian
• Carol

Like Best Actress, this is a very fine set of nominees. I do think, though, that Aaron Sorkin deserves to be here for his breathless screenplay for Steve Jobs, so that would replace Carol – a very difficult decision, indeed. My overall pick, though, still goes to The Big Short.

Best Original Screenplay *

• Inside Out
• Spotlight
• Ex Machina
• Bridge of Spies
• Straight Outta Compton

Sorry, but Straight Outta Compton sticks out like a sore thumb. I admire it for its spirit, but it does falter in its second half. For me, the deeply engrossing and focused Sicario would take its place among these nominees. As for which screenplay takes the cake, it’s neck-and-neck between Inside Out and Spotlight, but I’d give it to the former for its ambition and creativity.

Best Film Editing *

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Big Short
• Spotlight
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Two films that aren’t among these nominees but should be are The Martian and Steve Jobs. Editor Pietro Scalia maintains the stakes as he cuts back and forth between Mars and Earth for the former, while his counterpart Elliot Graham effortlessly ensures that the shots are in sync with Sorkin’s dialogue for the latter. Making way for these two are The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. From the resulting list, Mad Max: Fury Road keeps its place at the head of the pack.

Best Cinematography *

• The Revenant
• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Sicario
• Mad Max: Fury Road

Just as 2015 is a standout year for lead actresses, it’s also one for cinematography. These five films definitely deserve their places here, but I think that Son of Saul used its camera’s shallow focus and narrow field of vision to great effect, and it should be in this crowd. For it to get in, I’m knocking off Mad Max: Fury Road. Its inclusion has no effect on The Revenant, which far and away dominates this category.

Best Production Design *

• Bridge of Spies
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Danish Girl
• The Martian
• The Revenant

In terms of production design, I think that Crimson Peak and Star Wars: The Force Awakens are among the most memorable of last year, and for good reason. They commit to building and filming on physical, practical environments (the titular decaying mansion in the former and the grimy desert of Jakku in the latter) and tease worlds that I would very much like to explore. To make room for them, I would take out The Martian and The Revenant. From the new crop of nominees, Crimson Peak would be my pick.

Best Costume Design *

• Cinderella
• The Danish Girl
• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

The costumes in Brooklyn serve as extensions of character’s moods, and the ones found in Crimson Peak are simply exquisite and opulent. Both should be in this category, and I think they should replace Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant. My favorite use of costumes came from Brooklyn, so I’d crown it.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

Best Visual Effects *

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• Ex Machina
• The Martian
• The Revenant

All five nominees deserve to be here. I wouldn’t take any of them out since they are head and shoulders above any other 2015 film that I saw when it comes to this category.

Best Original Score *

• The Hateful Eight
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• Carol
• Bridge of Spies

When the Oscar nominees were announced last month, I was surprised that the bombastic, pulse-pounding score that Tom Holkenborg (Junkie XL) contributed to Mad Max: Fury Road was absent in this category. In my book, he makes it in, and to do, it would replace Bridge of Spies. Still, nothing deserves the top prize over Ennio Morricone’s creeping, evocative music for The Hateful Eight.

Best Original Song

• “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
• “Manta Ray” – Facing Extinction
• “Simple Song #3” – Youth
• “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground
• “Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

Best Sound Editing *

• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• Sicario
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• The Martian

The best sounds are the memorable ones, and there are plenty of those in Inside Out – look no further than the innocent clinks and hums of the memory orbs as they’re being moved around. It needs to be among the nominees, and I would take out The Martian for it. As for my overall pick, I would choose Star Wars: The Force Awakens in a heartbeat.

Best Sound Mixing *

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• The Revenant
• The Martian
• Bridge of Spies

Inside Out is a delightful cacophony of sounds and music, and it was absolutely snubbed. As far as I’m concerned, it gets in at the expense of Bridge of Spies. From this new set, Mad Max: Fury Road is still my pick.

Best Live Action Short Film *

• Everything Will Be Okay
• Shok
• Stutterer
• Day One
• Ave Maria

Best Animated Short Film *

• Bear Story
• We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
• Sanjay’s Super Team
• World of Tomorrow
• Prologue

I normally don’t watch short films, but I was able to this year since a nearby theater was playing the Oscar-nominated shorts. For the animated ones, the showing also featured a couple of other shorts (to stretch the overall runtime, I presume). I particularly liked the adorable simplicity of The Short Story of a Fox and a Mouse, and I think it should take the place of Prologue, which I found completely forgettable. From the new list, Bear Story is still my favorite.

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Body Team 12
• Chau, Beyond the Lines
• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
• Last Day of Freedom

So, after telling you my picks for each category had my desired films been among the nominees, here’s how my version of the Oscars would turn out.

• Best Picture: 45 Years
• Best Director: Todd Haynes, Carol
• Best Actor: Jacob Tremblay, Room
• Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
• Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
• Best Animated Feature Film: n/a
• Best Foreign Language Film: n/a
• Best Documentary – Feature: n/a
• Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
• Best Original Screenplay: Inside Out
• Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Best Cinematography: The Revenant
• Best Production Design: Crimson Peak
• Best Costume Design: Brooklyn
• Best Makeup and Hairstyling: n/a
• Best Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
• Best Original Song: n/a
• Best Sound Editing: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Best Live Action Short Film: n/a
• Best Animated Short Film: Bear Story
  
• Best Documentary – Short Subject: n/a

Best of luck on your Oscar pool(s)!